The paper aims to study the application of ensemble forecast in medium and long-term weather forecast, improve the application level of ensemble forecast and provide available experiences in the future in weather forecast business. The basic principles and concepts of ensemble forecast were introduced by taking ensemble forecast product as an example, the definitions, advantages and disadvantages of part of the ensemble forecast products also were discussed in this paper. On this basis, the authors analyzed the medium and long-term weather forecast case started at 20:00 of 17, March, 2016 to explore the application of ensemble forecast in the medium and long-term weather forecast.
Key words
medium and long-term weather forecast; numerical prediction; ensemble forecast; mean and variance; ensemble forecast product
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Footnotes
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