Water Temperature Change and Forecast in Spring and Summer in Aquaculture Fish Pond’s in Honghu Area

Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin ›› 2013, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (29) : 61-68. DOI: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2013-1285
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Water Temperature Change and Forecast in Spring and Summer in Aquaculture Fish Pond’s in Honghu Area

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Abstract

In order to forecast fish pond’s water temperature and to guide local fisheries production in Honghu Area, water temperature and air temperature data of local typical fish pond in spring and summer of 2011 and 2012 were analyzed. The results showed that: with the deepening of the water level, the diurnal range of water temperature decreased. Generally speaking, the difference of surface and deep water levels’ temperature in spring was larger while in summer relatively smaller. The correlation analysis results of water temperature and air temperature showed that significant relationship between water temperature of the day and air temperature of the day and past 1 to 3 days. With the mean, maximum and minimum air temperatures of the day and past 1 to 3 days as predictors, the mean, maximum and minimum water temperature forecast models of spring and summer seasons were established separately by stepwise regression method, and the determination coefficient reached 0.84 to 0.98. Comparing the modeled water temperature with the water temperature data of May and July 2011, and in May the model fitted better. Established model all had high precision with average relative error value less than 4%. That was to say, the established water temperature models could be used to forecast the fish pond water temperature for Honghu Area, which could provide effective guidance and meteorological services for fisheries production activities.

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forecast model

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Water Temperature Change and Forecast in Spring and Summer in Aquaculture Fish Pond’s in Honghu Area. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin. 2013, 29(29): 61-68 https://doi.org/10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2013-1285

References

邓爱娟 刘敏 刘志雄 汤阳 邓环 .洪湖地区养殖鱼塘春夏季水温变化及预报研究.中国农学通报 ,2013,29(第29期10月): 61-68
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