In order to study the precipitation and its characteristics at all seasons of Anqing in nearly 60 years, and predict the precipitation trend of Anqing in short term, to provide scientific basis and guidance for the agricultural production in the area, and guidance for flood control and drought relief. The author used Morlet wavelet to analyze the precipitation data of Anqing city in nearly 60 years. The results showed that: the precipitation concentrated in spring and summer and annual precipitation was increasing slightly. After experiencing 6 cycles, it would enter a new wet season after 2010. The variation trend of precipitation was different in four seasons. It was on a declining curve in spring and autumn, but on the rise in summer and winter. Anqing city’s smaller scale cycle shocked significantly in nearly 60 years, and it had a strong periodicity. The inter-annual rainfall changed greatly and alternate frequently. Floods and drought were easy to appear, but severe drought was hard to appear. In spring and summer, Anqing was influenced by monsoon circulation. Atmospheric circulation changed frequently and inter-annual precipitation varied greatly. Wet and dry alternated frequently. Small scale cycle shocked significantly. The inter-annual rainfall changed greatly and droughts and floods appeared frequently. While it was affected by the westerlies in autumn and winter, north air flow was prevailed. Air was relatively drier than it in spring and summer. Precipitation varied smaller. The inter-annual rainfall changed smaller relatively too. Drought and flood alternated slower than it did in spring and summer. Small scale cycle shocked not significantly.
Key words
precipitation variation; Morlet wavelet; cycle shocks; drought and flood alternately; Anqing City
{{custom_keyword}} /
{{custom_sec.title}}
{{custom_sec.title}}
{{custom_sec.content}}
References
[1] IPCC.全球气候变化的最新科学事实和研究进展[J].环境保护, 2007(6A):27-30.
[2] 袁新田,张群,张春丽.蚌埠市近 50年降水变化特征分析[J].石家庄学院学报,2011,13(6):97-102.
[3] 祁宦.近 50年安徽淮北平原降水变化特征分析[J].中国农业气象, 2009(02):138-142.
[4] 朱坚,张耀存,黄丹青.全球变暖情景下中国东部地区不同等级降水变化特征分析[J].高原气象,2009(4):889-896.
[5] 袁新田,徐国伟,徐彩玲.近 50年安庆市气候变化特征研究[J].宿州学院学报,2011,26(8):36-39.
[6] 崔建英.气温测算与季节划分[J].统计与管理,2011(6):65-66.
[7] 陈烈庭.华北各区夏季降水年际和年代际变化的地域性特征[J].高原气象,1999(04):477-485.
[8] 朱雅丽.安徽省沿江地区气象条件变化统计分析及其对水稻生产的影响[D].合肥:安徽农业大学,2012:1-42.
[9] 魏凤英.现代气候诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,2007: 1-86.
[10] 振山,邓自旺.子波气候诊断技术的研究[M].北京:气象出版社, 1999:l-36.
[11] 吴洪宝,吴蕾.气候变率诊断和预测方法[M].北京:气象出版社, 2005:208-245.
[12] Christopher Torrence, Compo G P. A practical guide to wavelet analysis[J].Bull Amer Meteor Soc,1998:61-78.
[13] Rao K N, George C J, Moray P E, et al. Spectral analysis of drought index (Palmar) for India[J].Indian J. Mete. Geophys.,1973,24: 287-310.
[14] 郝立生,李新,李月英.太阳活动变化的小波分析[J].干旱气象,2006, 24(4):15-19.
[15] 曾庆存,张邦林.大气环流的季节变化和季风[J].大气科学,1998(6): 805-813.
{{custom_fnGroup.title_en}}
Footnotes
{{custom_fn.content}}