根据2000—2021年河套地区向日葵菌核病中心菌株的出现期、始盛期和发生程度和同期的气象资料，分析了向日葵菌核病发生周期和程度与气象条件的相关性，并建立了相应的预测方程。结果表明，温度和湿度是影响菌核病发生的关键因素。降水量、平均风速和日照时数对菌核病的发生时间和程度也有重要影响。通过逐步回归建立3个预测模型，均通过0.01水平的显著性检验。历史数据拟合效果较好，2021年的测试结果较好，2022年投入实际业务运行。

Based on the data of the occurrence, the beginning and the occurrence degree of the central diseased plants of sclerotinia sclerotiorum in the sunflower from 2000 to 2021, as well as the meteorological data of the same period, the correlation between the occurrence period and degree of sclerotinia sclerotiorum on sunflower and meteorological conditions was analyzed, and the corresponding forecasting equations were established. The results showed that temperature and humidity were the key factors affecting the occurrence of sclerotinia sclerotiorum. Precipitation, mean wind speed and sunshine hours also had important effects on the occurrence time and degree of Sclerotinia sclerotiorum. Through stepwise regression, three prediction models were established, all of which passed the significance test of 0.01 level. The fitting effect of historical data is good, the trial report effect is good, and it can be put into actual operation.