为开展成都市秋桂花期精细化气象服务,建立秋桂花期气象预测模式,本研究基于成都市2004—2016年桂花物候观测与气象资料,运用数理统计法开展成都市秋桂花前、花期与气象因子的关系研究,结合桂树生育特性建立秋桂始花期预测模型。结果表明：花前降雨充沛,5日滑动平均气温稳定通过23℃后,秋桂3~6天进入始花期;秋桂花期喜雨晴相间,花期日平均气温20~24℃,雨日、降水量、日照是影响花期长短的主要气象因子;秋桂始花早晚与2月下旬旬最高气温、旬日照时数和7月下旬雨日呈正相关;与10月下旬雨量、5月下旬雨日呈负相关。研究建立的成都市秋桂始花期预测模型经回代验证历史拟合率较高,具有较好的预报效果,能提前20天预测,可用于秋桂初花期中长期预报,为成都市桂花观赏提供精准化的气象服务。

To develop refined meteorological services for autumn Osmanthus in Chengdu, and establish a meteorological forecast model, this research used mathematical statistics to study the relationship between the pre-flowering period and flowering period of Osmanthus and the meteorological factors, and established the prediction model of the initial flowering period of Osmanthus in combination with the Osmanthus growth characteristics based on the phenological observation of Osmanthus and meteorological data in Chengdu from 2004 to 2016. The results showed that: with abundant rainfall before flowering, when the sliding average temperature on the 5th day passed 23℃, Osmanthus entered the first flowering period in 3-6 days. During the flowering period, there was an alternation of sun and rain with the daily average temperature ranging from 20℃ to 24℃. The number of rainy days, precipitation and sunlight were the main meteorological factors influencing the duration of flowering period. The initial flowering period of Osmanthus was positively correlated with the highest temperature in late February, sunshine duration in late February and rainy days in late July, but negatively correlated with rainfall in late October and rainy days in late May. The prediction model of the flowering period of Osmanthus in Chengdu had a high historical fitting rate and a good forecast effect, which could predict the flowering time 20 days in advance. The study could be used for the medium and long term forecast of the early flowering period of Osmanthus and provide accurate meteorological service for the appreciation of Osmanthus in Chengdu.