根据四川省145个气象站点1981—2010年气象数据,结合全省晚熟柑橘主产区气候特点及生长情况调研结果,分析影响晚熟柑橘生长的关键气象因子,确定年平均气温、≥10℃年积温、无霜期、7月平均气温、1月平均气温、日照、降水量、海拔8个变量作为划分四川晚熟柑橘气候适宜区域的主要环境变量。应用GIS空间分析技术推算各气候要素值并采用特尔斐法确定区划指标权重,结合冬季冻害和春季高温2种主要气象灾害的风险区划,得到四川晚熟柑橘气候适宜性精细区划图。分析结果表明,四川省晚熟柑橘最适宜栽培区分布在海拔400~700 m、地势平缓的区域;晚熟柑橘可栽培区域海拔低至150~250 m,高至900~1200 m;海拔高于1200 m的高原、山地等地不适宜晚熟柑橘种植。

From the climate data of 145 meteorological stations in Sichuan from 1981 to 2010, combing with the climate characteristics of the late-maturing citrus growing regions and the citrus tree status, the critical influencing factors on late-maturing citrus were analyzed. Eight environmental variables, including annual mean temperature, ≥10℃ accumulated temperature, frost-free period, July mean temperature, January mean temperature, sunshine hours, precipitation and altitude, were confirmed to be the climatic regionalization indices for Sichuan late-maturing citrus. Using GIS spatial interpolation, the climate elements and zoning index weight were calculated. Two meteorological disasters of late-maturing citrus during the growth period, such as the winter freezing injury and disaster elevated temperatures, were selected to conduct further zoning. The results show that the most suitable region of late-maturing citrus in Sichuan is with the altitude ranging from 400-700 m, and with gentle terrain slopes. The tolerable altitude for late-maturing citrus could be as low as 150-250 m and as high as 900-1200 m. The plateau and mountainous regions with the altitude more than 1200 m are unsuitable for late-maturing citrus growing.