研究旨在建立广西温度、降水、日照和综合要素的日尺度适宜度模型,应用于广西柑橘气候适宜度等级分类,以及历年气候适宜度时空分布特征进行分析。利用广西87个国家自动气象站1961—2018年逐日气象资料和柑橘生长气候习性,采用模糊数学方法建立模型,并利用典型年份、阶段异常天气进行模型验证。结果表明,模型的逐日气象要素回归拟合效果较好,决定系数均在0.89以上;各要素适宜度指标的分类方法合理,广西大部分地区均属于柑橘种植适宜区,符合实际情况。模型的尺度精细,定量评估具有良好的效果;能较好地描述柑橘气候适宜度随季节和阶段性的极端高温、低温、干旱、暴雨等异常天气变化;广西柑橘各气象要素适宜度空间分布特征受地域气候影响明显,热量条件充足甚至过多,而降水和日照在一些地区不足,柑橘种植选址应更多考虑降雨和日照因素。

To establish a daily scale suitability model of temperature, precipitation, sunshine and comprehensive elements in Guangxi, and apply it to the classification of Citrus climate suitability grade and the analysis of the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of climate suitability over the years. Based on the daily meteorological data of 87 national automatic weather stations in Guangxi from 1961 to 2018 and the climate habit of Citrus growth, the fuzzy mathematical method was used to establish the model, and the model was verified by using the abnormal weather in typical years and stages. The results show that: the regression fitting effect of daily meteorological elements of the model is good, and the determination coefficient is above 0.89; the classification method of suitability index of each element is reasonable, and most areas of Guangxi are suitable for Citrus planting, which is in line with the actual situation. The scale of the model is fine, and the quantitative evaluation has good effect; it could better describe the abnormal weather changes of Citrus climate suitability with seasons and stages, such as extreme high temperature, low temperature, drought, rainstorm, etc.; the spatial distribution characteristics of meteorological elements’ suitability of Citrus in Guangxi are obviously affected by regional climate, the heat condition is sufficient or even too much, while precipitation and sunshine are insufficient in some areas. Therefore, more consideration should be given to precipitation and sunshine in choosing Citrus planting areas in Guangxi.