一次前倾槽下混合强对流天气关键信息分析

高丽,黄晓龙,甘晶晶,王凯

中国农学通报. 2019, 35(23): 116-123

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中国农学通报 ›› 2019, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (23) : 116-123. DOI: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb19010150
资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象

一次前倾槽下混合强对流天气关键信息分析

  • 高丽, 黄晓龙, 甘晶晶, 王凯
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Mixed Strong Convective Weather Under a Forward Trough: Key Information Analysis

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摘要

为加强防灾减灾能力,克服强对流过程预报失误问题,本研究综合利用多源气象观测资料,对2018.6.29浙江省中南部一次混合强对流过程进行分析。结果表明:前倾槽、地面辐合线及地形抬升,导致新生对流的发展、维持;前期不稳定能量累积明显,高Cape、θse能量大值区和925 hPa比湿都对此次强对流强度有较好的指示意义,但逆温层及干侵入导致K指数参考意义差;降雹风暴中气旋出现了9个体扫并伴有强风切变,同时VIL跃增相对降雹时刻有18 min提前量,为短临预报争取了预警时间;本次过程ρVIL表现出高敏感性,将估测冰雹直径≥5和ρVIL≥4结合会对冰雹有更好的指示意义;VIL指数结合VILmax和ρVILmax可推断出风暴性质;风暴承载层抵消作用导致此次雹云风暴移动发展受限。

Abstract

To strengthen the capacity for disaster prevention and mitigation, overcome the prediction errors of strong convection process. We analyzed a mixed strong convective event in south-central Zhejiang on June 29, 2018 based on multi-source meteorological observation data. The results showed that: the forward trough, surface convergence line and orographic uplift led to the development and maintenance of new convection; the accumulation of unstable energy in the early stage was obvious; high Cape, θse energy cumulation zone and 925 hPa specific humidity had good indicative significance for this strong convection intensity; but the inversion layer and dry intrusion led to poor reference of K; 9 body sweeps and strong wind shear occurred in the mesocyclone during hailstorm; at the same time, the jump of VIL was 18 min ahead of the hail time providing early warning time for short-term forecast; high sensitivity of ρVIL was showed in this process, and combining the estimation of hail diameter (≥5) and VIL (≥4) could provide the better significance; the combination of VIL with VILmax and ρVILmax could deduce the property of the storm; the offsetting effect of storm bearing layer resulted in the limited development of the hailstorm.

关键词

混合强对流;中分析;前倾槽;冰雹;雷暴大风;ρVIL;预警

Key words

mixture strong convection; mesoscale analysis; forward-tilting; bail; thunderstorm; ρVIL;warning

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高丽,黄晓龙,甘晶晶,王凯. 一次前倾槽下混合强对流天气关键信息分析. 中国农学通报. 2019, 35(23): 116-123 https://doi.org/10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb19010150
Mixed Strong Convective Weather Under a Forward Trough: Key Information Analysis. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin. 2019, 35(23): 116-123 https://doi.org/10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb19010150

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