为研究林芝市的山洪地质灾害的成因,针对降水、土地利用、土壤类型、坡度和植被指数等因素进行了分析。结合环境地质和降水时空分布特征,使用Logistic回归方法建立了山洪地质灾害的概率区划。依据灾害当前及前六天的日降水数据,通过Logistic回归模型建立了山洪地质灾害预警模型。研究发现,林芝市的大部分地区山洪地质灾害发生概率低于40%,概率在40%以上的区域约为1.8万平方公里,约占林芝市面积的14.8%。与实际发生情况对比印证,发现该预警模型对于山洪地质灾害预测的准确率为87.2%,而无灾害预测的准确率高达97.7%。
Abstract
To study the causes of mountain flood geological disasters in Nyingchi, Tibet, the authors analyzed several major impact factors such as precipitation, land use, soil type, slope and vegetation index. Combined with the environmental geology and the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of precipitation, Logistic regression method was used to establish the probability zoning of the disasters. Based on the daily precipitation data of the disaster day and six days before the disaster day, an early warning model of mountain flood geological disasters was obtained by the analysis of the Logistic regression. The results showed that the probability of disasters in most areas of Nyingchi was less than 40% , while the remaining area covered approximately 14.8% (18000 km2). We applied this early warning model to test the previous statistical data of
mountain flood geological disasters, and found that the prediction accuracy of the occurrence and nonoccurrence of the disasters was about 87.2% and 97.7%, respectively.
关键词
山洪地质灾害Logistic回归方法;概率区划预警模型
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Key words
mountain flood geological disasters;Logistic regression method;probability divisions;early-warning model
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