利用内蒙古73个旗县站点1979-2013年的气象站点资料、历史干旱灾害资料、马铃薯产量数据和社会属性数据等, 通过建立的内蒙古中西部和东部地区苗期的降水距平干旱指标,确定了干旱致灾因子的危险性分布,结合承灾体的脆弱性、孕灾环境的暴露性和防灾减灾能力的评价指标体系,利用GIS的空间分析功能,对内蒙古马铃薯苗期干旱灾害的风险性进行评估与区划。研究结果表明：高风险区主要分布在鄂尔多斯东北部、包头北部、呼和浩特市南部、乌兰察布市大部和锡林郭勒盟南部地区,所占面积比例为16.0%；中风险区主要分布在在鄂尔多斯准格尔旗、呼和浩特市北部、赤峰市西部、通辽市西北部、兴安盟西部部分地区和呼伦贝尔市北部地区,所占面积比例为17.9%；干旱较低风险区主要分布在我区东部农业种植的大部地区,分布区域面积最大,所占比例为46.3%；低风险区主要分布在灌溉区域,包括河套灌区和辽河流域,所占面积比例为19.8%。
Abstract
Based on the meteorological data, historical drought disaster data and yield data and social attribute data of potato from 1979 to 2013 in 73 Banner site stations of Inner Mongolia, the authors determined the risk distribution of drought disaster factors by building the precipitation anomaly at seedling stage in mid-western and eastern Inner Mongolia, and carried out risk assessment and regionalization of drought disaster at potato seedling stage in combining with the evaluation index system of the vulnerability of hazard bearing body, the exposure of hazard inducing environment and the ability of disaster prevention and mitigation, meanwhile, using spatial analysis of GIS. The results showed that: the area ratio of high risk areas was 16.0%, which mainly distributed in northeastern Ordos, northern Baotou, southern Hohhot, most regions in Wulanchabu and southern Xilingol; the middle risk areas mainly distributed in Zhungeer Banner of Erdos, northern Hohhot, western Chifeng, northwestern Tongliao, western Xing’an League, northern Hulunbeier, with an coverage being 17.9% in the total area; the relatively low risk areas of drought mainly distributed in eastern Inner Mongolia, with an coverage being 46.3%; the low risk areas with a ratio of 19.8% were intensively distributed in irrigated areas, including Hetao irrigation area and Liao River Basin.
关键词
马铃薯;苗期;干旱;风险区划;内蒙古
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Key words
Potato; seedling stage; drought; risk regionalization; Inner Mongolia
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