为合理的开发和利用青海省东部黄河谷地热量资源,选取黄河谷地4 个气象站近55 年(1961—2015 年)逐日平均气温资料,采用气候倾向率、滑动平均法和累积距平法等统计方法,对黄河谷地≥10℃初日、终日、持续日数及积温的时空分布特征进行分析。结果表明:(1)黄河谷地≥10℃积温初日、终日、积温和初终间持续日数等地区分布不一致,地区差异较大;(2)近55 年黄河谷地≥10℃积温总体上呈增加趋势,各地区变化幅度不一致;(3)黄河谷地≥10℃积温初日普遍提前、终日以延后为主,终日的延后趋势比初日提前的趋势显著。黄河谷地≥10℃持续日数呈逐年增加趋势;(4)黄河谷地年平均气温与≥10℃积温、持续日数、终日均呈极显著相关(P<0.01),但关联程度有所不同。
Abstract
For reasonable development and utilization of heat resources in Yellow River Valley in eastern Qinghai, we analyzed the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of the first day, the last day, duration days and accumulated temperature with ≥10℃ in Yellow River Valley by using climate tendency rate, moving average method and cumulative anomaly method and so on, based on daily average temperature data in 4 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2015. The results showed that: (1) the eginning date, the ending date, the accumulated temperature and the duration days with ≥10℃ accumulated temperature presented an obviously regional difference in the Yellow River Valley; (2) in recent 55 years, the ≥10℃ accumulated temperature had an increasing trend generally and regional variation was inconsistent in Yellow River Valley; (3) the beginning date with ≥10℃ accumulated temperature advanced while the ending date delayed, and the delaying trend of the ending date was more obvious than the advancing trend of the beginning date; the duration days with ≥10℃ showed an increasing trend; (4) the correlation coefficients between the annual mean surface air temperature and the accumulated temperature with ≥10℃, the duration days and the ending date were significant (P< 0.01), but the correlation degrees were different.
关键词
黄河谷地,热量资源,变化分析
{{custom_keyword}} /
Key words
heat resources; change analysis; the Yellow River Valley
{{custom_keyword}} /
{{custom_sec.title}}
{{custom_sec.title}}
{{custom_sec.content}}
参考文献
[1] IPCC 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis..
[2] 徐兴奎,王小桃,金晓青.中国区域1960—2000年活动积温年代变化和地表植被的适应性调整[J].生态学报,2009,29(11):6042-6050.
[3]缪启龙,丁园圆,王勇,等.气候变暖对中国热量资源分布的影响分析[J].自然资源学报,2009,24(5):934-944.
[4]刘少华,严登华,翁白莎等.近50 a中国≥10℃有效积温时空演变[J].干旱区研究,2013,30(4):689-696.
[5]胡琦,潘学标,邵长秀,等.1961—2010年中国农业热量资源分布和变化特征[J].中国农业气象,2014,35(2):119—127.
[6]刘实,王勇,缪启龙,等.近50年东北地区热量资源变化特征[J].应用气象学报,2010,21(3):266-278.
[7]孙兰东,刘德祥.西北地区热量资源对气候变化的响应特征[J].干旱气象,2008,26(1):8-12.
[8]刘允芬.现代气候变化对中国热量资源的影响[J].自然资源学报,1993,8(2):166.174.
[9]贾建英,郭建平.东北地区近46年玉米气候资源变化研究[J].中国农业气象,2009,30(3):302—307.
[10]马树庆,安刚,王琪,等.东北玉米带热量资源的变化规律研究[J].资源科学,2000,22(5):41—45.
[11]赖纯佳,千怀遂,段海来,等.淮河流域小麦一水稻种植制度的气候适宜性[J].中国农业科学,2011,44(14):
2868.2875.
[12] 刘德祥,董安祥,邓振镛.中国西北地区气候变暖对农业的影响[J].自然资源学报,2005,20(1):119—125.
[13] 马鹏飞,杜军,杜晓辉.1981-2014年西藏0℃界限温度变化趋势的时空分布[J].中国农学通报,32(8):147-153.
[14]张立波,吉宗伟,郑选军,等.近50年华东地区热量资源变化特征分析[J].中国农业气象,2012,33(3):325—332.
[15] 王涛,沈渭寿,林乃峰,等.长江流域近50a≥0℃积温变化特征及农业适应对策[J].生态与农村环境学报,2015,31(1):22-29.
[16]徐超,杨晓光,李勇,等.气候变化背景下中国农业气候资源变化Ⅲ:西北干旱区农业气候资源时空变化特征[J].应用生态学报,2011,22(3):763-772.
[17]徐华军,杨晓光,王文峰,等.气候变化背景下中国农业气候资源变化Ⅶ :青藏高原干旱半干旱区农业气候资源变化特征[J].应用生态学报,2011,22(7):1817-1824.
[18]胡玲,唐跃萍,祁如英,等.柴达木盆地近40年≥0℃、≥10℃初、终日和积温的变化及其对农业生产的影响研究.青海气象.2005.4.22-24.
[19] 赵恒和,郭连云,赵年武,等.共和盆地界限温度初终日和积温对气候变化的响应[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(4):207-211.
[20] 宋理明,马扶林,杨春玲.门源盆地界限温度初终日和积温对温度升高的响应.青海气象.2011.
(1):27—31.
[21] 阎凌云.农业气象[M].北京:中国农业出版社,2001:l57—162.
[22] 魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,1999:1-296.
{{custom_fnGroup.title_cn}}
脚注
{{custom_fn.content}}