研究粮食生产波动的规律、特征及成因对于保障粮食安全、稳定粮食生产具有重要意义。辽宁省作为粮食主产区之一，自改革开放以来粮食生产经历了一个曲折的阶段性过程，因此对改革开放以来辽宁省粮食生产波动情况进行了研究，深入分析其规律、特征及影响因素，既能明确其发展规律，又能确保经济社会发展对不断增长的粮食的需求。根据1978-2014年辽宁省粮食生产的相关数据，运用剩余法分析了粮食生产波动的特征，结果表明：（1）1978-2014年辽宁省粮食生产波动指数较高，波动指数在-20.13%-15.82%之间；波动幅度较大，平均波动幅度为19.01%。（2）根据波动周期理论，把1978-2014年辽宁省粮食生产划分为11个波动周期，平均波动周期为3年，且辽宁省粮食生产波动属于明显的古典型波动；并实证分析确定了影响粮食产量波动的主要因素，通过1985-2014年辽宁省粮食生产的回归结果，得出粮食产量波动是由粮食成灾面积、化肥施用量、粮食播种面积共同影响造成的，其中成灾面积对粮食产量波动的影响最明显，而有效灌溉面积、机耕面积及上一年粮食收购价格对其影响不显著；最后结合辽宁省粮食生产的实际情况，提出：（1）积极做好土地利用总体规划，保证粮食播种面积。（2）加强农田水利和节水农业设施建设，增加抵御自然灾害能力。（3）优化施肥投入，实现粮食产量质的提高等稳定粮食生产、减少粮食生产波动的针对性对策。

The study characteristics and genetic analysis of the law of the fluctuation of grain production, to ensure food security, stability, food production is of great significance. Liaoning province is located in the south of northeast China, is a grain of rice, corn and other food crops, as one of the 13 major grain-producing areas in China and important commodity grain production base, over the years, for the effective protection of our country has made a significant contribution to the food security, its food production fluctuation has significant effect on China''s grain production and supply. Liaoning province grain production since the reform and opening up has experienced a tortuous process of periodic, so the fluctuations of grain production in liaoning province since the reform and opening up are studied, in-depth analysis of the law, characteristics and influence factors, can not only clarify its law of development, and to ensure economic and social development of the growing demand for food. First of all, the basic situation of food production in liaoning province from 1978 to 2014 is analyzed, through the macro data such as liaoning statistical yearbook, the total grain output in liaoning province from 1978 to 2014, the grain sowing area and unit area grain yield several indicators to analyze statistical description, and the grain yield per unit area in liaoning province and the country of comparative analysis, observe the change rule of grain production in liaoning province since the reform and opening up. Second, according to the relevant data of grain production in liaoning province from 1978 to 2014, using the method of residual analysis of the characteristics of grain production fluctuation, the results show that: (1) the higher volatility index of grain production in liaoning province in 1978-2014, volatility index between - 20.13% - 20.13%; Volatility is larger, the average volatility of 19.01%. (2) according to the fluctuation cycle theory, the 1978-2014 food production in liaoning province is divided into 11 fluctuation cycle and fluctuation cycle for an average of three years, and the fluctuation of grain production in liaoning province belongs to clear the typical fluctuation; And the empirical analysis to determine the main factors affecting grain production fluctuation, through the regression results of grain production in liaoning province from 1985 to 2014, it is concluded that grain production fluctuation is composed of inundated area of grain, find the common effect, the area sown to grain, which inundated area on the fluctuation of grain output, the most obvious and effective irrigation area, the area of machine-cultivated and last year was not significant; the influence of grain purchase prices Finally combining with the actual situation of grain production in liaoning province, and put forward: (1) completes the general land use planning, ensure the area sown to grain. (2) to strengthen the construction of farmland water conservancy facilities and water-saving agriculture, increase the ability to withstand natural disasters. (3) the optimization of fertilizer input, the output of grain quality stable food production, such as reducing food production fluctuation of targeted countermeasures.