中国谷子生产仍然以农户种植为主。为缓解谷子面积萎缩、谷农种植谷子积极性低等问题，特对国内谷子主产区的农户进行实际调查，共收集到1031份有效问卷，利用SPSS统计软件进行Logistic模型回归分析。结果显示：谷子产量、谷子口感、是否补贴、谷子面积比例、谷子价格5个指标达到0.01%极显著水平，受教育程度这一指标达到0.05%显著水平，这些指标是影响农户种植谷子意愿的显著因素。对此提出加大科技研发力度，培育高产优质新品种；落实政策支持，加强农业补贴力度；宣传谷子文化，倡导健康饮食等建议。
Abstract
At present, China’s foxtail millet production is still mainly based on the planting by farmers. Faced with problems such as the shrinking of foxtail millet planting area, and low enthusiasm of farmers for growing foxtail millet, a planting willingness investigation was conducted in the main foxtail millet production areas and 1031 valid questionnaires were collected. SPSS statistical software was used to carry on the logistic model analysis. The results showed that five indicators, the foxtail millet yield, taste, whether there were subsidizes, foxtail millet planting area and price, reached 0.01% extremely significant level, and the level of education reached 0.05% significant level. These indicators were the significant factors affecting farmers’ willingness for planting foxtail millet. Finally, we put forward suggestions including strengthening technology research on cultivating new varieties of high yield and good quality, enhancing policy support and subsidizes to agriculture, popularizing foxtail millet culture and initiating healthy diet.
关键词
谷子；影响因素；Logistic模型；意愿；农户
{{custom_keyword}} /
Key words
foxtail millet; influencing factor; Logistic model; willingness; farmers
{{custom_keyword}} /
{{custom_sec.title}}
{{custom_sec.title}}
{{custom_sec.content}}
参考文献
[1] Lv H Y, Zhang J P, Liu Kam-biu, et al. Earliest domestication of common millet(Panicum miliaceum) in East Asia extended to 10000 years ago[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2009,106:7367-7372.
[2] 华林甫.唐代粟、麦生产的地域布局初探[J].中国农史,1990(2):33-42.
[3] 李顺国,刘猛,赵宇,等.河北省谷子产业现状和技术需求及发展对策[J].农业现代化研究,2012,33(3):286-289.
[4] 黄武,韩喜秋,朱国美.花生种植户新品种采用的影响因素分析[J].农业技术经济,2012(12):12-21.
[5] 曹熔琨.油菜种植户新品种采用行为影响因素实证分析[J].经济视角,2011(8):146-147.
[6] 朱丽娟.玉米新品种采用的农户响应行为及影响因素分析[J].中国农学通报,2013,29(23):107-111.
[7] 范垄基,穆月英,付文革.我国蔬菜种植户放弃种菜意愿及其影响因素分析[J].经济问题,2015(4):98-106.
[8] 马翠萍,肖海峰.我姑大豆种植户持续种植意愿的影响因素[J].技术经济,2011,30(9):85-89.
[9] 李维.农户水稻种植意愿及其影响因素分析[J].湖南农业大学学报:社会科学版,2010,11(5):7-13.
[10] 张新仕,王桂荣,王慧军.农户种植张杂谷影响因素实证分析[J].中国农学通报,2011,27(12):191-195.
[11] 李顺国,刘猛,赵宇.谷子种植意愿的影响因素分析[J].贵州农业科学,2011,39(11):45-48.
[12] 刘斐,刘猛,赵宇.半干旱区谷农采用化控间苗技术影响因素实证研究[J].科技管理研究,2015,35(14):110-113.
[13] 李玉勤.杂粮种植农户生产行为分析[J].农业技术经济,2010(12):44-53.
[14] 刘晓敏,王慧军,李运朝.农户采用小麦玉米农艺节水技术意愿影响因素的实证分析[J].安徽农业科学,2010,38(12):6838-6541,6599.
[15] 李玉勤,张蕙杰.消费者杂粮消费意愿及影响因素分析[J].农业技术经济,2013(7):100-109.
[16] 窦学诚,龚大鑫,关小康.甘肃省小杂粮产业竞争优势度及影响因素分析[J].干旱地区农业研究,2012,30(5):1-13.
[17] 刘斐,刘猛,赵宇,等.城镇居民小米消费影响因素实证分析[J].中国食物与营养,2015,21(3):41-46.
[18] 郭玲霞,高贵现,彭开丽.基于logistic模型的失地农民土地征收意愿影响因素研究[J].资源科学,2012,(8):1484-1492.
[19] 王美红,孙世民,尹成成.养猪场(户)新型生产经营组织参与意愿的影响因素分析[A].//农业制度创新与技术经济问题研究-中国农业技术经济学会2013年学术研讨会论文集[C].北京:中国农业科学技术出版社,2014:114-122.
[20] 程汝宏.我国谷子育种与生产现状及发展方向[J].河北农业科学,2005,9(4):86-90.
[21] 刘猛,赵宇,李顺国,等.河北省太行山区谷子生产现状与发展建议[J].农学学报,2011,(9):57-60.
[22] 郭晋襄,李志华,李会霞,等.我国谷子生产中存在的问题及未来发展方向[J].中国种业,2014,(3):16-18.
[23] 张云,刘猛,王慧军.基于文化软实力的谷子产业发展构想[A].//农业制度创新与技术经济问题研究-中国农业技术经济学会2013年学术研讨会论文集[C].北京:中国农业科学技术出版社,2014,419-429.
[24] Lv HY, Zhang J P, Liu Kam-biu, et al. Earliest domestication of common millet(Panicum miliaceum) in East Asia extended to 10000 years ago[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2009,106:7367-7372.
[25] 王尧琴,王伟闽.我国谷子营养成分初探[J].作物品种资源,1986(4):29-31.
{{custom_fnGroup.title_cn}}
脚注
{{custom_fn.content}}
PDF(1371 KB)
