1961-2014年青海湖上游气温变化趋势分析

肖莲桂

中国农学通报. 2016, 32(11): 95-100

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中国农学通报 ›› 2016, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (11) : 95-100. DOI: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb15110008
资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象

1961-2014年青海湖上游气温变化趋势分析

  • 肖莲桂
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Temperature Variation Trend in the Upstream of Qinghai Lake Region in 1961-2014

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摘要

为了研究近54年来青海湖上游天峻地区气温变化的特点及其规律,利用天峻气象站1961—2014年的气温资料,使用线性趋势、Mann-Kendall突变检验和R/S分析法等方法进行分析研究。结果表明:54年来青海湖上游天俊地区年和四季平均气温、最高气温和最低气温均呈显著的上升趋势,冬季升温最为显著,气温日较差呈显著的下降趋势。最高气温的增温率小于最低气温的增温率,存在着非对称性变化的特点。年平均气温、最高气温、气温日较差分别在1994年、1995年、2000年发生了突变。年和四季平均气温、最高气温、最低气温和气温日较差存在明显的Hurst现象。

Abstract

The paper aims to study the characteristics and law of temperature change in recent 54 years in Tianjun by using the temperature data of Tianjun station in 1961-2014 and the linear trend, Mann-Kendall mutation test and R/S analysis methods. The results showed that in recent 54 years, the annual and seasonal average temperature, the maximum and minimum temperature showed a significant upward trend in Tianjun, and the winter warming was most significant. The diurnal temperature range showed a significant downward trend. The warming rate of the maximum temperature was less than that of the minimum temperature, there existed an asymmetry change. The annual average temperature, the maximum temperature and the diurnal temperature range had mutations in 1994, 1995 and 2000, respectively. And there existed obvious Hurst phenomenon in the annual and seasonal average temperature, the maximum and minimum temperature and the diurnal temperature range.

关键词

气温;天峻地区;气候倾向率;突变

Key words

temperature; Tianjun area; climate tendency rate; mutation

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导出引用
肖莲桂. 1961-2014年青海湖上游气温变化趋势分析. 中国农学通报. 2016, 32(11): 95-100 https://doi.org/10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb15110008
Temperature Variation Trend in the Upstream of Qinghai Lake Region in 1961-2014. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin. 2016, 32(11): 95-100 https://doi.org/10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb15110008

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[15]冯新灵,罗隆诚,冯自立,等.中国雨日变化趋势的分形研究[J], 自然灾害学报,2009,18(6):112-116.Analysis of the Temperature Trend in Upper Qinghai Lake Region: 1961-2014Xiao Liangui1,Shi Mingzhang2,Qi Donglin3,Qi Hui4(1 The Meteorological Administration of Tianjun, Xinyuan Qinghai 8172002 The Meteorological Administration of Huangyuan, Chengguan Qinghai 8121003 Institute of Qinghai Meteorological Science Research, Xining 8100014 The Meteorological Administration of Dachaidan, Dachaidan Qinghai 816200 )AbstractThe characteristics and laws of temperature change in nearly 54 years of the Tianjun was studied by using the temperature data of TianJun stations in year 1961-2014 and linear trend, Mann-Kendall mutation test and R/S analysis methods. The results showed that: nearly 54 years, the annual and seasonal average temperature, maximum and minimum temperature show a significant upward trend in Tianjun, and the winter warming is most significant. The diurnal temperature range show a significant downward trend. the warming rate of maximum temperature is less than that of minimum temperature, there exists asymmetry change. Annual average temperature, maximum temperature and diurnal temperature range respectively mutated in year 1994, 1995 and 2000. And there exists obvious Hurst phenomenon in annual and seasonal average temperature, maximum and minimum temperature and diurnal temperature range.Keywords: temperature; Tianjun area; climate tendency rate; mutation
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