加快城镇化与农业现代化发展是中国新时期“四化”建设的重要目标,研究认识城镇化与农业现代化之间的关系,是实现二者均衡发展的前提。在建立综合评价指标分别对系统发展水平进行评价的基础上,使用耦合协调度模型进一步探究了过去20多年城镇化与农业现代发展的协调作用程度,研究结果表明:城镇化与农业现代化不是两个孤立的过程,两者之间存在要素互补、发展互动、目标互融的关系,在发展初期,城镇化对农业现代化有较强的拉动效应。1990—2013年间,中国的农业现代化与城镇化获得了较快的发展,两系统间的互动协调效应不断加强,2013年两系统间的耦和协调度为0.53,处于初级协调的水平,预计到2025年左右耦合协调度将超过0.7,达到中级协调的水平,城镇化与农业现代化发展进入螺旋上升的发展时期。
Abstract
To accelerate the development of urbanization and agricultural modernization is an important mission of the construction of ‘four modernizations’ in China, study the relationship between urbanization and agricultural modernization is the premise to achieve the balanced development. On the basis of the establishment of comprehensive evaluation index to evaluate the development degree of urbanization and agricultural modernization, the author aimed to use the coupling harmonious degree model to further explore the coordination degree of those two systems in the past 20 years. The results showed that urbanization and agricultural modernization were not independent, they were elements complementary, development interaction and targets inter-amalgamation. Urbanization had a strong promoting effect on agricultural modernization in the initial stage. From 1990 to 2013, Chinese agricultural modernization and urbanization gained great development, and the interaction and synergetic effect was increasingly strong. The coupling harmonious degree of those two systems was 0.53 in 2013, which belonged to the level of primary coordination, and it was estimated that the coupling coordination degree could exceed 0.7 in 2025, which belonged to the level of intermediate coordination, the development of Chinese urbanization and agricultural modernization would enter a spiral up period.
关键词
城镇化;农业现代化;耦合度;协调发展
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Key words
urbanization; agricultural modernization; coupling harmonious degree; coordinated development
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