为分析中国农村居民收支结构发展规律，收集了中国各地区改革开放以来30年的农村居民收支数据；采用线性回归分析长期变化趋势，层次聚类分析分布规律，并创新性地采用等级分解法定量分析收支关系。结果发现改革开放30年以来，中国农村居民家庭纯收人和生活消费支出的发展趋势均分4个阶段线性增长，各阶段线性回归的调整R2值基本达到0.9以上。农村居民收入与支出的分布规律基本相似，收入和支出水平较高的地区均主要分布在7个独立分支的聚类组，涉及北京、天津、上海、江苏、浙江、广东和福建等地区。“工资性收入”和“转移性与财产性收入”对各项支出的单独解释贡献量最大，分别达到22.34%~41.59%和41.35%~55.45%，已经成为改变农村居民消费结构的主要收入类型。总体上，中国农村居民收入与支出的变化趋势基本相似，具有发展阶段性和分布不均衡性的特征，且逐渐向享受型消费方向发展，收入水平及其结构是影响消费结构的重要决定性因素。30年长期数据的研究结果和定量分析方法为深入研究中国农村经济结构、探索农村发展途径提供借鉴。
Abstract
To investigate the development trend of revenue-expenditure structure of rural residents, revenue and expenditure data during thirty years of the reform and opening-up in China were collected. Linear regression was used to analyze the development trend, hierarchical cluster was conducted to reveal the distribution characteristics and hierarchical partitioning was innovatively used to quantify the relationship between revenue and expenditure. The results showed that revenue-expenditure structure of rural residents exhibited a four-step linear increasing trend during the thirty years, and adjusted R2 of linear regressions for each step were mostly above 0.9. Distribution characteristics of revenue and expenditure were similar, and the highest level both occurred in seven independent branches, including Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong and Fujian. Wage revenue and transferability-property revenue had become the main types of contributing revenue for expenditure structure of rural residents. They respectively explained 22.34%-41.59% and 41.35%-55.45% of variations in all types of expenditure. In conclusion, with characteristics of stages, unevenness, and a trend towards enjoyment type, revenue of Chinese rural residents had a similar development trend with that of expenditure and played an important role in changing expenditure structure. The findings from this study of 30 years’ long term development and methods used in this paper may provide a reference for further studies on rural economy structure and the exploration on the development of rural areas in China.
关键词
农村经济；发展趋势；收支结构；等级分解；单独贡献量；联合贡献量
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Key words
rural economy; development trend; revenue-expenditure structure; hierarchical partitioning;independent contribution; combined contribution
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