基于1996—2011年安徽省资源环境的相关数据，从资源压力、环境压力2方面构建安徽省资源环境压力预警指标体系。运用熵权法测算资源环境压力指数，进而运用RBF模型对1996—2011年安徽省资源环境压力演变趋势进行模拟预测，并结合预警指数和警度标准对1996—2011年安徽省资源环境压力预警状况进行分析，旨在为安徽省社会经济与资源环境和谐发展提供参考，使社会经济健康、快速、可持续的发展。结果表明：RBF模型有较高的模拟仿真精度，能够较好地拟合1996—2011年安徽省资源压力、环境压力和资源环境压力指数的发展趋势。安徽省资源压力预警指数总体呈现波动上升趋势，警度由“中警”上升到“巨警”。环境压力指数在1996—2011年一直呈现上升趋势，其预警指数在2004年以前基本处于“中警”格局，但2004年以来，这一指数明显增大，警度由“中警”逐步转变为“重警”和“巨警”状态。可得出结论，影响安徽省资源环境压力的主要因素包括人均用电量、人均用水量、自然灾害受灾面积比重、能源消费标煤总量、工业废气排放量、固体废弃物排放量等，是今后调控的重点。

Based on the related data of resource and environment pressure in Anhui Province from 1996 to 2011, this paper constructed an early-warning index of resource and environment pressure system for Anhui Province from two aspects which were resource pressure and environment pressure. According to the entropy weight method to measure index of resources and environment pressure and then using the RBF model to make a prediction for resource and environment pressure development trend of Anhui Province in 1996—2011, and at last made a warning analysis of the resource and environment pressure of the Anhui province from 1996 to 2011 according to the early-warning index and warning degree standards. Based on the analysis, the results show that: RBF model has a relatively high simulation accuracy, which can well fit the resources and environment pressure system's development trends of Anhui Province in 1996—2011. The early-warning index of the resource pressure system showed an upward trend with fluctuations in 1996—2011, and the warning degree rose from moderate alarm to giant alarm; As for the environment system, but since 2005 the warning degree rose from moderate alarm to heavy alarm and giant alarm. The main factors that influence the resource and environment pressure of Anhui Province include per capita electricity consumption, water consumption per capita, the proportion of natural disaster-affected area, the total energy consumption, Industrial waste gas emissions and Solid waste emissions. These are the focus of resource and environment pressure regulation in the future.