为了给政府部门的土地、水资源利用规划和环境保护决策及管理提供依据，基于情景分析思想，假定不同的经济发展政策，分析了西北地区生态风险变化趋势。采用AHP方法建立了生态风险预测指标和模型，进行了西北地区风险预测。结果表明，西北地区人口、国民经济、水资源、土地资源以及自然灾害潜在生态风险依然存在，生态环境及响应生态风险有减小趋势。因此，只有采取区域均衡发展，西部生态环境恶化态势才能遏制，社会经济发展、资源、环境可望良性循环，生态风险才能降低。
Abstract
In order to provide the basis for land and water use planning and environmental protection of government decision- making and management. Based on scenario analysis method, assuming different economic development policies, and AHP method, the ecological indicators and risk prediction models were established. The trends of ecological risk in the northwest region were analyzed for the government decisions. The results showed that: in the northwest, the potential ecological risks of the population economy, water resources, and land resources and natural disasters still existed. However, the environment and respond to ecological risks were decreasing. Therefore, a regional balanced development measures had been taken to curb the western trend of ecological deterioration. So that socio-economic development, resources, environment, and economy were expected to a virtuous cycle, and the ecological risks would be reduced.
关键词
生态风险； 情景分析； 态势； 预测； 西北地区
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Key words
ecological risk; scenario analysis; trend; forecast; northwest
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