为了指导东北地区松毛虫防治工作，有效控制松毛虫发生，最大限度地减轻其对林业生产和生态安全的危害。对2002—2012年东北地区松毛虫发生面积与前1年6月至当年5月74项大气环流指数特征值进行相关分析，筛选出与东北各省区及不同虫种松毛虫发生有显著关系的大气环流指数因子，采用逐步回归方法建立东北及3省1区松毛虫、不同虫种松毛虫发生面积预测预报模型，并对模型进行了检验。结果表明：模型的拟合和延伸预报效果均较好，2010—2012年东北及各省区、不同虫种松毛虫发生面积大气环流预报准确率除吉林为70%外，其余预报准确率都在80%以上。
Abstract
In order to guide the prevention and control of Dendrolimus spp. in northeast China, the effective control of Dendrolimus spp. occurrence, and reduce the harm to the forestry production and ecological security, the author analyzed the relationships between occurrence area attacked by Dendrolimus spp. in northeastern China during 2002-2012 and 74 characteristic indexes of atmospheric circulation from previous June to current May. The factors of atmospheric circulation which were significant related with Dendrolimus spp. occurrence were selected. The occurrence area forecast models concerning atmospheric circulation were established by stepwise regression method and verified separately. The results showed that: the occurrence area attacked by Dendrolimus spp. could be preferably simulated and predicted by these models. The forecast accuracy reached above 80%, in addition to Jilin to 70% by various provinces of northeastern China and different kinds of Dendrolimus spp. occurrence area atmospheric circulation model through extending prediction for 2010- 2012.
关键词
松毛虫； 发生面积； 大气环流指数； 预测模型
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Key words
Dendrolimus spp.; occurrence area; atmospheric circulation index; prediction model
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