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江苏省丰县苹果生产绿色防控现状调查与分析
Investigation and Analysis of Green Prevention and Control in Apple Production in Fengxian, Jiangsu
为了解2017—2018年丰县地区苹果生产及绿色防控现状,在丰县梁寨、师寨、大沙河以及宋楼4个镇的13个苹果种植村,调研农户的基本信息、生产经营情况以及果园病虫害防治及管理情况。调查结果表明,丰县地区的苹果种植户主要负责人多为男性,且年龄整体偏大,总体文化水平较低,其中同时具备党员或村干部资质的人数较少;在气候正常年份(2017年),丰县地区苹果平均产量可达到 29178.6 kg/hm2,平均售价2.4元/kg,平均收入73608元/hm2;而在遭遇极端气候影响的年份(2018年),苹果的产量锐减50%以上,平均售价上涨约1.8倍,但农户总体收入减少;农药与肥料的投入是生产资料成本的最重要构成部分,均占到总投入的40%左右,其构成比重受生产资料成本波动的影响较小;现阶段丰县地区苹果园中最高发的病害为斑点落叶病、轮纹病,腐烂病以及炭疽病也有一定程度危害,高发的虫害为梨小食心虫、绣线菊蚜、山楂叶螨以及绿盲蝽;针对病虫害,所有苹果种植户均采用化学防治的方法,而使用农业防治、物理防治以及生物防治措施进行综合防治的农户比例不高;大部分种植户喷药次数集中在9~12次/年,首次喷药时间集中在3月末4月初,末次喷药时间各有不同;农资店为种植户农药的主要购买渠道,且大部分种植户选择由农资店代为配制,其中过半数的种植户选择根据当年各自果园中的情况喷施;丰县地区苹果喷药机械化程度较高,目前小型全自动化机动式喷雾器覆盖率已超过80%。
To understand the situation of apple production and the green prevention and control in Fengxian in 2017-2018, 13 apple planting villages in Liangzhai, Shizhai, Dashahe and Songlou of Fengxian were surveyed on the basic information of growers, apple production and management, as well as the control of pests and diseases in orchards. The results showed that people in charge in apple orchards in Fengxian were mostly male, and their age on the whole was older, their overall cultural level was lower, and the number of CPC party members or village cadres was less. In the normal climate year (2017), the average yield of apple in Fengxian could reach 29178.6 kg/hm2, with an average price of 2.4 yuan/kg and the gross income of 73608 yuan/hm2. In the year of extreme climate (2018), the output of apple decreased by more than 50%, the average price of apple increased by about 1.8 times, but the total income of growers decreased. The input of pesticides and fertilizers was the most important component of the cost of means of production, accounting for about 40% of the total input, and its proportion was less affected by the fluctuation of the cost of means of production. The high disease incidence in apple orchards included Alternaria mali, Physalospora Piricola, and Valsa mali and Anthracnose also had a certain degree of damage. The high incidences of insect pests were Grapholitha molesta, Aphis citricola, Tetranychus viennesis and Apolygus lucorum. For pests and diseases, all apple growers adopted chemical control methods, while the proportion of growers who used agricultural control, physical control and biological control measures for integrated control was not high. Most of the growers sprayed pesticides 9-12 times per year, the first spraying time was at the end of March or the beginning of April, and the last spraying time was different. Agricultural stores were the main purchasing channel pf pesticides, and most growers chose agricultural stores to prepare pesticides on their behalf. More than half of the growers chose to spray pesticides according to the specific conditions of their orchards. The mechanization of spraying in apple orchards has had a relatively high degree in Fengxian, and at present, the application of small automatic mobile sprayers has exceeded 80%.
苹果 / 绿色防控 / 丰县 / 病虫害 / 调查 {{custom_keyword}} /
Apple / Green Prevention and Control / Fengxian / Pests and Diseases / Investigation {{custom_keyword}} /
表1 油菜花期低温阴雨灾害序列状态划分 |
状态 | 灾害等级 | 灾损率/% |
---|---|---|
0 | 无灾 | <5 |
1 | 轻灾 | 5~10 |
2 | 中灾 | 10~20 |
3 | 重灾 | 20~30 |
4 | 特重灾 | >30 |
表2 1961—2020年都江堰油菜花期低温阴雨灾害序列状态 |
年份 | 状态 | 年份 | 状态 | 年份 | 状态 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1961 | 2 | 1981 | 1 | 2001 | 0 |
1962 | 0 | 1982 | 1 | 2002 | 2 |
1963 | 1 | 1983 | 2 | 2003 | 1 |
1964 | 2 | 1984 | 1 | 2004 | 2 |
1965 | 2 | 1985 | 3 | 2005 | 2 |
1966 | 1 | 1986 | 2 | 2006 | 2 |
1967 | 2 | 1987 | 1 | 2007 | 1 |
1968 | 3 | 1988 | 3 | 2008 | 2 |
1969 | 1 | 1989 | 1 | 2009 | 1 |
1970 | 2 | 1990 | 2 | 2010 | 2 |
1971 | 1 | 1991 | 1 | 2011 | 2 |
1972 | 1 | 1992 | 3 | 2012 | 2 |
1973 | 1 | 1993 | 2 | 2013 | 1 |
1974 | 2 | 1994 | 2 | 2014 | 0 |
1975 | 2 | 1995 | 1 | 2015 | 0 |
1976 | 2 | 1996 | 2 | 2016 | 2 |
1977 | 3 | 1997 | 2 | 2017 | 2 |
1978 | 1 | 1998 | 2 | 2018 | 1 |
1979 | 1 | 1999 | 1 | 2019 | 1 |
1980 | 2 | 2000 | 2 | 2020 | 1 |
表3 边际概率表 |
状态 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
---|---|---|---|---|
P·j(1) | 0.07 | 0.38 | 0.47 | 0.09 |
P·j(2) | 0.05 | 0.40 | 0.47 | 0.09 |
P·j(3) | 0.05 | 0.39 | 0.48 | 0.09 |
P·j(4) | 0.05 | 0.40 | 0.47 | 0.09 |
P·j(5) | 0.06 | 0.41 | 0.46 | 0.09 |
表4 2019年都江堰叠加马尔可夫链灾害状态预测 |
起始年 | 起始状态 | 转移步数 | 状态 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |||
2018 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.27 | 0.55 | 0.14 |
2017 | 2 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.43 | 0.39 | 0.14 |
2016 | 2 | 3 | 0.11 | 0.39 | 0.43 | 0.07 |
2015 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.75 | 0.25 | 0.00 |
2014 | 0 | 5 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.00 |
合计 | 0.20 | 2.34 | 2.12 | 0.35 |
表5 2019年都江堰加权马尔可夫链灾害状态预测 |
起始年 | 起始状态 | 转移步数 | 权重 | 状态 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | ||||
2018 | 1 | 1 | 0.52 | 0.03 | 0.14 | 0.28 | 0.07 |
2017 | 2 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.02 |
2016 | 2 | 3 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
2015 | 0 | 4 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
2014 | 0 | 5 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.00 |
合计 | 0.05 | 0.40 | 0.46 | 0.09 |
表6 2019年都江堰改进叠加马尔可夫链灾害状态预测 |
预测指标 | 状态 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
Pi/n | 0.04 | 0.47 | 0.42 | 0.07 |
Si | 0.07 | 0.38 | 0.47 | 0.08 |
Fi | -0.03 | 0.08 | -0.04 | -0.01 |
Qi | -0.11 | 0.00 | -0.12 | -0.09 |
表7 2019年都江堰改进加权马尔可夫链灾害状态预测 |
预测指标 | 状态 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
Pi’ | 0.04 | 0.40 | 0.46 | 0.10 |
Si | 0.07 | 0.38 | 0.47 | 0.08 |
Fi’ | -0.03 | 0.02 | -0.01 | 0.02 |
Qi’ | -0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
表8 2011—2020年都江堰灾害状态预测验证表 |
年份 | 实际状态 | M1预测状态 | M2预测状态 | M3预测状态 | M4预测状态 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2011 | 2 | 2(√) | 1 | 1 | 1 |
2012 | 2 | 2(√) | 2(√) | 2(√) | 1 |
2013 | 1 | 1(√) | 1(√) | 1(√) | 1(√) |
2014 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
2015 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0(√) | 0(√) |
2016 | 2 | 2(√) | 2(√) | 2(√) | 2(√) |
2017 | 2 | 2(√) | 2(√) | 2(√) | 2(√) |
2018 | 1 | 2 | 1(√) | 1(√) | 1(√) |
2019 | 1 | 1(√) | 2 | 1(√) | 2 |
2020 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
表9 2011—2020年四川盆区5种灾害等级预测正确率回代检验 |
预测方法 | 数值 | 无灾 | 轻灾 | 中灾 | 重灾 | 特重灾 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
实际个数 | 159 | 277 | 179 | 15 | 0 | |
M1 | 预测正确数 | 2 | 256 | 65 | 1 | 0 |
正确率/% | 1 | 92 | 24 | 3 | — | |
M2 | 预测正确数 | 4 | 245 | 74 | 0 | 0 |
正确率/% | 3 | 84 | 27 | 0 | — | |
M3 | 预测正确数 | 65 | 216 | 92 | 11 | 0 |
正确率/% | 41 | 81 | 49 | 72 | — | |
M4 | 预测正确数 | 71 | 191 | 94 | 6 | 0 |
正确率/% | 42 | 70 | 52 | 41 | — |
表10 2011—2020年四川盆区灾害预测总正确率回代检验 % |
预测方法 | R0 | R1 | R2 |
---|---|---|---|
M1 | 52 | 97 | 100 |
M2 | 51 | 96 | 98 |
M3 | 61 | 94 | 100 |
M4 | 58 | 92 | 100 |
注:绝对正确率(R0)代表预测灾害等级与实际灾害等级完全吻合的样本占总样本的百分比;等级差≤1的正确率(R1)代表预测灾害等级与实际灾害等级之差≤1的样本占总样本的百分比;等级差≤2的正确率(R2)代表预测灾害等级与实际灾害等级之差≤2的样本占总样本的百分比。 |
表11 2021年四川盆区5种灾害等级预测正确率检验 |
预测方法 | 数值 | 无灾 | 轻灾 | 中灾 | 重灾 | 特重灾 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
实际个数 | 10 | 37 | 14 | 2 | 0 | |
M1 | 预测正确数 | 0 | 29 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
正确率/% | 0 | 78 | 21 | 0 | — | |
M2 | 预测正确数 | 0 | 29 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
正确率/% | 0 | 78 | 29 | 0 | — | |
M3 | 预测正确数 | 2 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
正确率/% | 20 | 54 | 29 | 0 | — | |
M4 | 预测正确数 | 2 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
正确率/% | 20 | 51 | 29 | 0 | — |
表12 2022年四川盆区5种灾害等级预测正确率检验 |
预测方法 | 数值 | 无灾 | 轻灾 | 中灾 | 重灾 | 特重灾 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
实际个数 | 27 | 25 | 6 | 5 | 0 | |
M1 | 预测正确数 | 0 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
正确率/% | 0 | 76 | 33 | 20 | — | |
M2 | 预测正确数 | 0 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
正确率/% | 0 | 80 | 33 | 20 | — | |
M3 | 预测正确数 | 7 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
正确率/% | 26 | 48 | 33 | 20 | — | |
M4 | 预测正确数 | 5 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
正确率/% | 19 | 48 | 33 | 20 | — |
表13 2021、2022年四川盆区灾害预测总正确率预测检验 % |
预测方法 | 2021 | 2022 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
R0 | R1 | R2 | R0 | R1 | R2 | ||
M1 | 51 | 97 | 100 | 35 | 94 | 100 | |
M2 | 52 | 98 | 100 | 37 | 92 | 100 | |
M3 | 41 | 87 | 100 | 35 | 86 | 100 | |
M4 | 40 | 87 | 100 | 32 | 81 | 98 |
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