研究2 种数学分析模型对南方水稻黑条矮缩病的预报效果，为该病害的预测预报提供参考。以2006—2015 年广东省化州市晚稻南方水稻黑条矮缩病发病率为原始数据，分别采用多项式回归和灰色系统GM(1,1)预测方法建立南方水稻黑条矮缩病发病率的预测模型，分析其预测效果。结果表明，采用多项式回归和灰色系统GM(1,1)分别建立了晚稻南方水稻黑条矮缩病发病率预测预报模型：y=5.2530-5.8923x 2.1280x2-0.1559x3和y(1)(k 1)=-51.1797e-0.4798k 66.8097，2 种预测模型均能较好地预测南方水稻黑条矮缩病的发病趋势，为该病害的预测提供了一种准确有效的方法。预测预报模型可以应用于防病减灾工程。
Abstract
The effect of two mathematical models on southern rice black-streaked dwarf virus was studied to provide reference for the prediction of the disease. Based on the original data of Incidence of late southern rice black-streaked dwarf virus in Huazhou City, Guangdong Province, Polynomial regression method and Grey system GM (1,1) prediction method are applied to build the prediction model of southern rice black-streaked dwarf virus incidence rate and to analyze the prediction results. The results show that, the late southern rice black-streaked dwarf virus incidence prediction models established by polynomial regression and grey system GM (1, 1) are: y=5.2530-5.8923x 2.1280x2-0.1559x3 and y(1)(k 1)=-51.1797e-0.4798k 66.8097. The two prediction models can well predict the incidence trend of southern rice black-streaked dwarf virus, and provide an accurate and effective method for the prediction of the disease. The predictive model can be applied to the project of disease prevention and mitigation.
关键词
南方水稻黑条矮缩病;预测模型;多项式回归;GM(1,1)模型
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Key words
SRBSDV;Prediction Model ;Polynomial Regression;GM (1, 1) model
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