Li Jinglin, Pu Zongchao, Zhang Shanqing, Wang Mingquan, Li Xinjian, Xu Wenxiu
Based on the data of annual accumulated temperature of ≥10 ℃, July mean temperature and frost-free period from 52 meteorological stations in northern Xinjiang during 1961―2012, the spatial distributions of heat resources were analyzed by using mixed interpolation method based on ArcGIS, the change trends of heat elements were studied by using the linear regression method, and the variations in different periods of 1961―1970, 1971―1980, 1981―1990, 1991―2000 and 2001―2012 were analyzed also. Based on the above analyses, the cotton-planting climate zoning for northern Xinjiang in different periods were completed respectively with the climate indicators of cotton-planting zoning. And the variation of areas suitable, secondly suitable, risk and unsuitable for cotton in different periods were contrasted and analyzed. The main results were as follows: Heat resource was very obviously different in different regions of northern Xinjiang, generally, annual accumulated temperature of ≥10 ℃, July mean temperature and frost-free period were higher or longer in plain and basin areas than in mountain areas. In the background of global warming, the three indicators showed an increasing trend with rates of 75.657 ℃, 0.218 ℃and 4.36 d every 10 years respectively in recent 52 years. Under the joint effects of the above-mentioned climate factors, the areas suitable for cotton planting had a substantial expansion, and the areas secondly suitable and unsuitable for cotton reduced to different extents, but the areas risk for cotton planting did not change significantly. Compared with 1960s, the areas suitable for cotton planting increased 6.54164×104 km2, and the areas risk and unsuitable for cotton reduced by 0.99982×104 km2 and 5.28675×104 km2 respectively in 2001―2012. It is important to promote the development of cotton industry in the areas suitable for cotton planting increased in northern Xinjiang.