Agro-pastoral economy
DU Peng, DONG Wenshan, ZHOU Dongxu
Mod Agric.
2024, 49(3):
14-23.
Comprehensively explore the spatial evolution of agricultural production carbon emissions is of significant importance for formulating rational agricultural carbon reduction policies. Using agricultural carbon emission data in Shandong Province from 2000 to 2020,this study estimated the emissions and intensities across 16 regions within the province,and investigated the regional disparities, spatial-temporal patterns, and dynamic changes in agricultural carbon emissions and intensities in Shandong Province. The research findings indicated that: (1)Overall, agricultural carbon emissions across various regions exhibited a reversed U shape trend, characterized by “rise-stable fluctuation-decline” evolution trend; (2)Agricultural production carbon emission intensities in different regions showed a trend of “stable fluctuation-continuous decline”,reaching its lowest point by 2020; (3)Over the past 20 years, regions with high and medium-high carbon emission intensities in Shandong Province have continuously evolved towards medium and low intensities, with all regions transitioning to medium intensities or lower by 2020; (4)The Moran’s I index of agricultural production carbon emission intensities across the 16 regions of Shandong Province fluctuated in an N shape, demonstrating a distinct spatial clustering characteristics. In light of these findings, an in-depth analysis of the spatial evolution trends in agricultural carbon emissions in Shandong Province was conducted, along with proposed carbon emission reduction strategies, providing theoretical references for the sustainable development of agriculture in the province.